Gold prices can jump to Rs 1.25 lakh per 10 gms around Diwali: Report
The bull run in gold prices has proved to be quite relentless over the past two years. Now expert agencies are suggesting that global and domestic tailwinds can propel the price of the yellow metal to previously unthinkable levels.
Kolkata: Gold prices have been marching northwards relentlessly over the past two years and now analysts are saying that the price of the precious metal can rise to levels of Rs 1.25 lakh per 10 gms. Against the continuous rise and conducive climate in the global and domestic market, ICICI Bank’s Economic Research Group has said that the price of gold are expected to remain at elevated levels throughout this year and the first half of the next. Diwali will be observed on October 20 this year.
It is significant to note that the price of this safe-haven metal has risen by a mind-boggling 33% already in 2025. One of the factors maintaining the upward pressure on the price of the yellow metal is the weak rupee against the US Dollar. "Risks to these projections are to the upside if the Rupee trades at a more depreciated level than our assumptions,” mentioned the note from ICICI Bank.
The spot price of gold 999 touched Rs 109,409 per 10 gm on the morning of September 10 according to IBJA data. By the way, gold prices have sailed past Rs 1.10 lakh per 10 gms in the futures market in the country. Analysts have predicted that in the global market, gold prices can be around $3,400-3,600 per ounce for the rest of the weeks in 2025. Come 2026 and average prices can rule at an elevated level of $3,600-3,800 per ounce.
Multiple price drivers
The other factors are global uncertainty arising from mainly two reasons -- one, geo-political conflicts and two, tariff-related trade uncertainty. While the former is a global factor, the latter is a global as well as a local factor.
Moreover, India is the second biggest consumer of gold in the world after China and imports most of its requirements every year. Therefore, the price of gold in India is dependent both on the level of price in the global markets and the exchange rate. Reports state that imports have surged from $1.8 billion in June 2025 to $4.0 billion in July -- a rise of 122%.
The fourth driver of gold prices is the expectation that the US Federal Reserve would slash policy rates and easing interest rates usually boost precious metal prices. There are concerns about the health of the US economy with Moody's chief economist writing that the world's largest economy is in the edge of recession.