Tamil Nadu weatherman Pradeep John explains the return of Northeast monsoon rains
IMD has issued an Orange Alert for several districts, indicating the potential for very heavy rainfall between 115 mm and 200 mm. John clarified that the current weather system, a low-pressure area in the Bay of Bengal, is not expected to intensify into a cyclonic storm. The main threat, he emphasized, is the rainfall itself, not damaging winds.
Chennai: The Northeast Monsoon in Tamil Nadu has reawakened after a prolonged lull, with weather models indicating a return of significant rainfall, particularly for the state's coastal districts. After a vigorous start in October, the monsoon entered a quiet phase, leading to a rain deficit since the beginning of November. However, meteorological developments in the Bay of Bengal are set to change this pattern, bringing a series of wet spells to the region.
Coastal Districts, from Delta to Chennai, in the Rain "Hotspot"
According to an analysis by popular private weather blogger Pradeep John, known as the "Tamil Nadu Weatherman," the primary focus of the incoming weather activity will be the coastal belt stretching from the Cauvery Delta to Chennai. "The hotspot is from the Delta to Chennai," John stated, noting that the delta regions are expected to receive rainfall immediately, while Chennai can anticipate cloudy weather with occasional spells. He added that southern parts of Chennai might see rains commencing as early as tonight.
Decoding the Alerts: Heavy Rain, Not Storms, is the Primary Concern
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued an Orange Alert for several districts, indicating the potential for very heavy rainfall between 115 mm and 200 mm. John clarified that the current weather system, a low-pressure area in the Bay of Bengal, is not expected to intensify into a cyclonic storm. The main threat, he emphasized, is the rainfall itself, not damaging winds.
"The low-pressure area that has formed in the Bay of Bengal at present will not only provide rain, but there is no chance of it strengthening further and becoming a storm," he explained. The key factor for Tamil Nadu will be the system's trajectory and duration along the coast, which will determine the intensity and spread of the rains.
A Look Ahead: Monitoring a Potential System Around November 25
While the immediate system poses no cyclonic threat, weather watchers are closely monitoring another potential low-pressure area expected to form around November 25th. John indicated that this system holds a greater chance of intensification. "We are investigating whether the low-pressure area that will form on the 25th is likely to become a storm," he said.
The path of this future system would be critical. If it travels along the Tamil Nadu coast, it would bring substantial rain to coastal districts, and if it moves closer to the shore, it could also benefit interior regions.
Bridging the Rain Deficit: A Cautious Outlook
The return of the monsoon is crucial to bridge the existing rainfall deficit. John noted that November 2024 has so far seen below-average rainfall, following a pattern from the previous year. "Last year, only 14 cm of rain fell in November instead of the average 18 cm... the current November is also deficient in rain," he said.
While the coming days are expected to see a gradual increase in rainfall, it remains uncertain whether the month will ultimately meet its long-term average. "We expect the rain to gradually increase in the coming days. Will it touch the average rain? I do not know. We will have to wait and see," the weatherman concluded.