Explained: China launches major military drills around Taiwan, what will their likely effect be?

New Delhi: China has launched live-fire military drills around Taiwan that simulates a blockade of major ports. It appears to be in formations akin to attacking maritime targets and fending off international “interference”. China called this as a warning to “separatist” forces in Taiwan. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA), the military wing of the ruling Communist party in China, said it had sent naval, air force and rocket forces to surround Taiwan on Monday morning. Chinese coast guard vessels were also sent out to conduct “law enforcement inspections” at sea around Taiwan’s outer islands.

The exercise was named Justice Mission 2025, and a spokesperson for the PLA’s eastern theatre command, Col Shi Yiwas, termed it as “a stern warning against ‘Taiwan independence’ separatist forces and external interference forces.” “It is a legitimate and necessary action to safeguard China’s sovereignty and national unity,” he further added.

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While announcing the drills China’s eastern theatre command said, “The vessels and aircraft will approach the Taiwan Island in close proximity from different directions to test the capabilities of the troops to conduct rapid manoeuvres, form all-dimensional posture, and execute systemic blockade and control.”

The announcement also included stylised propaganda videos and maps indicating air and maritime areas to avoid in three large zones around the southern point of Taiwan. The PLA further said that it had deployed destroyers, frigates, fighters, bombers, drones, and long-range missiles, testing “capabilities of sea-air coordination and of precise target hunting and neutralisation”.

Taiwan did not take well to the Chinese exercises. In return Taiwan’s defence ministry accused Beijing of escalating tensions and undermining regional peace. It “strongly condemned” the activity and in return talked about employing “appropriate forces” to respond to the exercise. “Defending democracy and freedom is no provocation, and the existence of the Republic of China [Taiwan’s formal name] is not an excuse for aggressors to disrupt the status quo,” the ministry said.

Taiwan’s coast guard also responded, saying that the scope of the drill “poses a significant threat to the navigational safety of vessels in Taiwan’s waters and to the operational rights of fishermen”.

The current military exercise done by China is part of its long-standing conflict with Taiwan. China claims Taiwan is a Chinese province and has often talked of annexing the land they claim is rightfully theirs. Recent Chinese military drives in the region are thus seen to be conducted with this very specific intent in mind.

The Chinese Communist party (CCP) and its leader, Xi Jinping, have urged Taiwan to accept “peaceful reunification”, however the vast majority in Taiwan reject this proposal. In turn, Taiwan has in recent times made attempts to further bolster its own military prospects to counter the Chinese threats in the region.

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Another important point of consideration is that China’s current drill comes after recently weakened relations with Japan after the country’s Prime Minister said that Japan would likely become militarily involved if China attacked Taiwan. In addition to Japan, the US too has been involved in bolstering Taiwanese military, aiding their weapons system by engaging in military trade with the country. China’s current military can thus be also seen as a reply against these trends.

While the extent of the military exercise will become clear with time, what is being seen is that the regional influence of the exercise was more than usual. Importantly, it was also an explicitly stated exercise aimed at combating international involvement. China thus is blurring the line between training and actual on-ground military operations, something that Taiwan, and its allies should be mindful of.