Why Japan and South Korea could be mulling to build their own nuclear weapons fearing Ukraine-like fate
The Ukraine war has significantly impacted Japan and South Korea's security perceptions. The perceived failure of US security assurances in Ukraine, coupled with increased threats from China and North Korea, is fuelling public support for developing independent nuclear deterrents. Opinion polls reveal a growing willingness to abandon longstanding anti-nuclear stances, raising concerns about a potential regional nuclear arms race. This shift reflects a growing distrust in US security commitment.
New Delhi: Are Japan and South Korea thinking to build their own nuclear weapons? Could they be reconsidering their arms plans and security strategies after security assurances by the US failed to protect Ukraine from Russian invasion? They face two belligerent neighbours -- China and North Korea -- and the only way could be their own nuclear deterrent.
Hollow security assurances
Even though US President Donald Trump had offered assurances of NATO’s security support to Ukraine in 2018, the Russian invasion revealed how hollow these assurances were. Recently, he again reiterated these promises. However, his tilt towards Russian President Vladimir Putin has raised hackles.
For Japan and South Korea, it a caution and exposes Trump's unpredictability. They are fast realising that US security promises don't hold much water and the aggression from its neighbours needs an internal solution.
Shifting public opinion
A Reuters report says that polling shows up to 75% of the South Korean public is in favour of the country building its own nuclear weapons. Opinion polls in Japan too reveal a growing public readiness to reconsider the country’s long-held anti-nuclear stance, the report adds. Both countries are currently protected under the US nuclear umbrella. However, several experts say that they might be thinking of curbing their reliance on US security guarantees if attacked.
The US is a strong ally of Japan and South Korea. But the apparent shift in their nuclear stand has come against the backdrop of the Ukraine conflict, where US support initially seemed shaky. Their doubts mounted after Trump imposed tariffs on Japan and South Korea and even spoke of "absorbing Canada". It reflected that the US President had no qualms about challenging long-standing alliances and turn against America’s traditional security commitments.
But it's not only Trump who showed ambivalence towards Ukraine war at the start. President Joe Biden also did. He provided Ukraine with military aid, while making it clear that the US would not fight World War Three over Ukraine. So, the question being asked by South Koreans and Japanese today is: Will US retaliate with nuclear weapons for the sake of South Korea and Japan?
Russia's nuclear threats
Russia has often issued threats to use nuclear weapons to deter external intervention in the war. Ukraine has given up nuclear weapons goals and stands vulnerable. China and North Korea are increased their nuclear arsenal. If they issue similar nuclear threats, South Korea and Japan should have enough nuclear arms to challenge them. Can they wait for US help in a nuclear emergency? That's a question which is being asked by many.
Geopolitics is changing phenomenally and the Ukraine war has served as an eye-opener for both South Korea and Japan. The seeds of a sentiment to break away from restraint and build their own nuclear deterrent could have been sown in this war.