Indias GDP forecast raised to 6.5%: S&P upgrades 2025-26 Outlook
India's GDP forecast has been revised upwards to 6.5% for 2025-26 by S&P Global Ratings. It stated that normal monsoon, monetary easing, and lower crude oil prices could help the country to achieve the growth rate.
New Delhi: In a shot in the arm for the Modi government, S&P Global Ratings has raised India's GDP forecast for 2025-26 to 6.5 per cent. The global ratings agency hiked the GDP forecast after considering normal monsoon, monetary easing and lower crude oil prices.
S&P raised concern over the effect of the Israel-Iran conflict on the global economy. If the MIddle east tensions continue for long, it could increase oil prices that would eventually have significant economic impact in Asia-Pacific, notably via slower global growth and pressure on the current accounts of net energy importers, prices and costs.
"However, current conditions on global energy markets--which are well-supplied-- make such long-term impact on oil prices unlikely," S&P said.
The ratings agency in its report mentioned that India heavily depends on the imported crude oil to fulfil its needs. The country is 90 per cent dependent on imports to meet its crude oil needs and purchases half of its natural gas from foreign countries, it added.
In May 2025, S&P had lowered India's FY26 growth estimates by 20 basis points to 6.3 per cent while considering global uncertainties and US tariff shocks.
S&P released its Asia Pacific Economic Outlook on Tuesday. The report said domestic demand resilience is particularly relevant in limiting the economic slowdown in economies less exposed to goods exports such as India.
India's GDP Growth
"We see India's GDP growth holding up at 6.5 per cent in fiscal 2026 (year ending March 31, 2026). That forecast assumes a normal monsoon, lower crude oil prices, income-tax concessions and monetary easing," S&P said.
Meanwhile, government recently released a report stating that India’s GDP has witnessed a remarkable transformation over the past decade. The GDP increased from Rs 106.57 lakh crore in 2014–15 to an estimated Rs 331.03 lakh crore in 2024–25, the data mentioned. "In 2024–25 alone, nominal GDP grew by 9.9% over the previous year, while real GDP (at constant prices) increased by 6.5%, reflecting sustained economic momentum," it said.