Rupee vs USD: What is the estimated impact on your Dollar payments & budget

New Delhi: The Rupee which was falling recently has gained strength against the US Dollar after the intervention of the Central Bank. In this article, we inform you about the impact of Rupee vs USD on your pocket if you are making any payment in dollars, that is, tuition or exam fees for foreign studies, foreign travel, order of any gadget, visa related fees, etc..

According to media reports, after falling 4.1 percent so far in the year 2025 (CY25), the Rupee may stabilise at around $90 per dollar by the end of December. Most people estimate that the Indian currency could be around $88.50 against the dollar by the end of March. This means that the Rupee may see strength.

According to a Business Standard report, the Rupee has seen a decline of 4.3 percent so far in the financial year 2025-26. Last week, the rupee reached a lifetime lower level with a level of 91.10. After the rupee hit a new low for four consecutive sessions, the rupee strengthened by about 1.3 percent against the dollar at the end of the week. According to the report, this has been attributed to the intervention of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).

The value of the Rupee fluctuated between 91.10 and 89.25 and then strengthened 1.1 percent to 89.29 in the last hour of trading on Friday, compared to 90.26 in the previous session. Market experts told Business Standard that this move of the RBI was taken with the aim of eliminating betting positions and to create panic among traders who held long positions in dollars and short positions in rupees. Meanwhile, Rupee rose 3 paise to 89.65 against US dollar in early trade on December 23, 2025.

If you are going to pay in dollars, then consider Rs 90 per dollar as your basis and keep some extra amount around it. Every Re 1 change in the rate of US dollar rupees (USD-INR) increases the cost of your rupee by Rs 1,000 per 1,000 dollars. For example, if your payment is $3,000, a change of 1 rupee will increase the cost of the rupee by 3,000. This allows you to include rupee fluctuations in your budget. This converts the "rupee fluctuation” into a number for which you can budget.

At present, we have three levels against the US dollar. The first level is 88.50, which is expected to be reached by the end of March 2026. The second level is 90 dollars, which can last till the end of December 2025, while there is a third level, which is 91 dollars, which was seen in the month of December. If you want to pay USD 500, then Rs 44,250 at the level of 80.50, Rs 45,000 at the 90 level and Rs 45,500 at the 91 level. If your payment is 2000 dollars, then you will have to pay around Rs 1.77 lakh to Rs 1.82 lakh. If the payment is 10,000 dollars, then you may have to spend Rs 8.85 lakh to Rs 9.10 lakh from your pocket.

According to media reports, different banks of the country have their own opinion. According to Standard Chartered, the dollar level may remain Rs 90 by the end of December, whereas by the end of March this level is likely to come down to Rs 89.5. IDFC First Bank is looking at 89.50 by the end of December and 88.5 by the end of March. According to CR Forex, the dollar is expected to be between 89.80 by the end of December and 88.80 by the end of March. RBL Bank is looking at rupees around 91 against the dollar by the end of December and 9293 by the end of March. At the same time, Bank of Baroda is looking at the rupee at 89.59 against the dollar at the end of December and 90 to 91 by the end of March. This variation is important for budgeting. If your last payment date is in January or February, your responsibility will be different from the person making the payment at the end of March — even if both are making payments within the same financial year.

If you are not a trader, two things are important. First, the RBI is indicating that it does not want a unilateral decline. Market experts say that the sale of the dollar by the central bank indicates that it will not tolerate the situation of "unilateral decline”, which should help curb speculation and reduce risks on both sides