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New Delhi: With fertility rates declining, the population of India is projected to stabilise between 1.8 and 1.9 billion by 2080. This has been revealed following an assessment by the Indian Association for the Study of Population (IASP).
Anil Chandran, the general secretary of IASP, pointed out that the country is going through a period of rapid demographic transition. The birth rate has seen a sharp and rapid decline over the past two decades: the total fertility rate (TFR) has dropped from 3.5 in 2000 to 1.9 currently. Chandran underlined that India’s population is expected to peak at around 1.8–1.9 billion by 2080. In such a scenario, it is estimated that the country’s population will remain below two billion.
Fertility rates are directly linked to development and education, according to IASP. Among the uneducated, the fertility rate is over three, while among the educated, it ranges between 1.5 and 1.8. It is expected that as the educated population grows, fertility rates will decline proportionally.
IASP says that contraceptive and birth control programmes are also a major reason for the decline in fertility rates. Improved decision-making between husband and wife, and mutual decisions regarding child rearing, future, and number of children, have also had a marked impact on the population. Marriage and advancement are also a factor.
According to Chandran, delayed marriages and increased opportunities for advancement are also contributing to the dip in fertility rates. Women pursuing education to build careers are making more thoughtful decisions regarding having children. This is having a direct impact on the population.
The fertility rate in Kerala was 2.1 between 1987 and 1989, which has now come down to 1.5, as per the IASP study. Likewise, there has been a rapid decline in the fertility rate in West Bengal. According to a report of 2023, the TFR in West Bengal was 1.7 in 2013, which has come down to 1.3 in 2023. According to experts, the birth rate is declining, but due to improvement in health services, the life expectancy is increasing. The number of people above 60 years of age is growing. As the younger members of the household go out to earn, the challenges faced by the elderly the house are increasing.
