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New Delhi: On August 15, US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet for the first time since 2019. To be held in Alaska, the meeting has the world -- and especially India -- waiting for it with bated breath.
The focus will be on ending the Ukraine war, which has been dragging on for over three and a half years now. Trump's ambivalence and positive approach towards Russia and Putin at the start of his second term had raised hopes of a quick resolution to the conflict. However, that initial approach failed to bring about any concrete outcome.
The meeting comes at a time when tensions between Russia and Ukraine are at an all-time high and there is buzz that a deal involving swapping of territories has been proposed by Trump. Crimea is at the centre of the war. Ukraine will never accept Russia's takeover of Crimea and Russia is not going to let it go. Putin is also eyeing Donetsk and Luhansk and is reportedly believed to have said that he is willing to end the war if Ukraine gives away these territories. Importantly, for any deal to work, Russia will have to give Ukraine the guarantee to be neutral and join the EU.
The Alaska meeting will deliberate on these issues in detail and could hammer out a blueprint of a deal which could be acceptable to both the warring nations.
However, the absence of Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy from the meeting is a cause for concern. Following the announcement of Alaska meeting, Zelenskyy contended that Ukraine is "ready to work together with President Trump", but quashed the idea of any territory concessions. He has made it clear that he will never accept handing over the Ukrainian areas seized by Russia. Many international analysts say that Russian forces have occupied over 20 percent of Ukraine's territory since the war started. Ukraine and its European partners have also voiced fears that Russia aggression will mount if Ukraine takes a lenient stance.
Analysts say the Alaska meeting holds major significance for global politics, but Zelenskyy’s unwavering stance shows that critical hurdles still remain in the way of peace talks. Reaching any deal that involves Ukraine making territory concessions will be far from easy. A deal may continue to be elusive if Zelenskyy is not made part of the discussions.
The meeting is going to take place against the backdrop of Trump imposing 50% tariffs on Indian goods -- a decision that has forced the India-US trade ties to nosedive. Notwithstanding the economic aspects tied to it, the move reflects the US President’s broader geopolitical frustrations, essentially with Russia. India may have been caught in the crossfire.
A favourable outcome from the Alaska meeting could give India hope that the US might reconsider its tariff structure and adopt a mellower stance. This shift could mean not only reduction in the steep tariffs on Indian goods but also creating space for more positive trade negotiations. According to analysts, if the Alaska meeting goes in the right direction, the US could give relaxation in some of its tough economic measures against India.
The tariffs are US' way to "punish" India for its trade with Moscow. But if US can bring Russia and Ukraine around, the geopolitical equation could see a massive change, with Washington relenting on tariffs. A positive outcome of the meeting may see easing of tensions between the West and Russia, and the harsh trade measures against India may be lifted as a consequence by the US.
