Miyake Events: Can life on Earth survive extreme Solar outbursts?

In 2012, the Japanese physicist Fusa Miyake identified an event in 775 CE where an extreme burst of cosmic radiation bombarded the Earth. The event was characterised by a sudden spike in carbon-15, a cosmogenic isotope of carbon. This was an exceptionally powerful solar eruption, far exceeding the strength of even the extreme solar storms in recent history. While gamma-ray bursts, supernova eruptions and a comet striking the Earth can all result in such a carbon spike, the most accepted explanation is that the carbon spikes are caused by extreme solar superstorms. 

Over the past 14,500, there have been six solar superstorms, energetic outbursts so violent that they have left a permanent record in compressed ice, as well as in tree rings. The last such extreme event occurred in 993 CE, with another witnessed during the height of the Assyrian Empire, 2,700 years ago. These extreme solar superstorms, known as ‘Miyake Events’ have never been witnessed in modern times. It is just a matter of time before the next big one hits. 

Trees absorb carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, including carbon-14 which is a radioactive isotope. If there is a spike in carbon-14 in a tree ring, which can be dated, it indicates a sudden influx of energetic particles into the atmosphere of the Earth. The evidence of the 775 CE solar superstorm was discovered by Miyake in Japanese cedar trees, but was confirmed globally through tree rings in Russia and Europe. 

When carbon-14 strikes the atmosphere, it interacts with nitrogen and oxygen to form beryllium-10 and chlorine-36, both of which can be trapped in the ice. An increase in these isotopes aligns with an increase in carbon-14. The beryllium-10 trapped in ice cores recovered from Greenland confirmed the 12,350 BCE spike. For most of the recent events, accounts of spectacular auroral displays in lower latitudes corroborate the data in the ice cores. In all, tree-rings, ice cores and historical observations provide a robust, cross-verified record of solar superstorms through independent lines of evidence. 

We do not know the physical processes that cause solar superstorms to occur, and hence these extreme outbursts are extremely challenging to forecast. There have been six confirmed solar storms over the past 15,000 years, which gives some idea of the frequency of these events. There is roughly a one per cent chance in a decade that a solar superstorm will strike the Earth. The Sun is reaching solar maximum, and the 11-year cycles of solar activity does not necessarily increase the odds of such an extreme super storm. In short, predicting a solar superstorm remains impossible with current science. 

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A Miyake Event today would dwarf the 1859 Carrington Event, which is the most extreme solar storm in modern history. The Carrington Event resulted in widespread displays of auroras, and disrupted telegraph systems, causing connected devices to catch fire. The solar superstorms would be between 10 and 100 times more intense, the impact to modern technologies can only be described as catastrophic. The geomagnetic storm would last for weeks, even months, causing widespread blackouts that may even last years. Such events could potentially cause permanent damage to power distribution infrastructure. 

The energetic particles would fry satellites disrupting navigation, internet and telecommunications. Many satellites might become inoperable, with humans having to redeploy the damaged infrastructure. The loss of power and communication would hit financial markets, supply chains and emergency services as well. Trillions in economic losses are predicted, with recovery timelines as long as a decade. The atmosphere of the Earth would shield the residents of the planets, but passengers of high altitude jets and astronauts would be exposed to lethal doses of radiation. Some researchers have suggested that a solar superstorm could grind modern life to a halt.