BMC results reshape Mumbai politics: BJP gains edge, Uddhav retains influence | Key takeaways

New Delhi: The battle lines were drawn well before the much-delayed election schedule of the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) was announced. Alliances forged ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections and carried into the assembly polls later that year were eventually abandoned as parties jostled for control of the country's richest civic body, whose budget exceeds that a dozen states.

According to the latest trends, the Mahayuti alliance, led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena, is racing ahead in the BMC elections.

Held after a gap of seven years, the polls witnessed the reunion of the Thackeray cousins, with Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT) joining hands with Raj Thackeray's Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS). The cousins hoped to consolidate the Marathi vote bank after both suffered major setbacks in the assembly elections.

The BJP retained Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena as an alliance partner to woo voters who had shifted away from Sena (UBT) following the 2022 split between Uddhav Thackeray and Shinde.

Other partners of both the Mahayuti and the Maha Vikas Aghadi alliances chose to contest separately.

Key takeaways

For the BJP and Maharashtra chief minister Devendra Fadnavis, installing a mayor from the party in Mumbai would be a significant political boost. Barring the 2024 general elections, the BJP has consistently outperformed its former ally Sena (UBT) after the latter severed ties in 2019 and formed a government with the Congress and the then undivided NCP.

The BJP has touched a historic high in the BMC, surpassing its previous best performance of 82 seats in 2017. The party is currently leading in 93 wards. Fadnavis was actively involved in ward-level campaigning and election strategy. The BJP also managed to attract voters in areas where the Shiv Sena's base weakened after the split.

Reacting to the results, Fadnavis said: "We fought these elections with a vision of development under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. That is why we have received a record-breaking mandate. These results show the trust that Maharashtra places in PM Modi."

The party is also leading in several other municipal corporations where results were declared on Friday.

The Shiv Sena ruled the BMC for several years and was buoyed when Uddhav Thackeray became chief minister with the backing of the Maha Vikas Aghadi after the 2019 assembly elections. However, the party split, with Shinde walking away with most MLAs and senior leaders, dealt it a severe blow. While the Sena (UBT) bounced back in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the assembly elections again proved disappointing.

The party also lost a majority of its BMC corporators to Shinde's faction. For Uddhav Thackeray, this election was about political survival in the city where the Shiv Sena was founded and where it dominated civic politics since the 1990s.

Although it could not replicate its 2017 performance, when the undivided Sena won 84 seats, the party is still leading in over 60 wards. This underlines that both the party and the Thackeray name remain relevant in Mumbai.

While the loss of the country's richest municipal body will sting, Sena (UBT) may draw consolation from the fact that it continues to be the preferred Shiv Sena faction among Mumbai voters despite losing leaders, the party symbol, and organisational control.

Uddhav Thackeray managed to retain support in traditional strongholds by reminding voters of his faction's claim as the original Shiv Sena and its long association with the city.

The same cannot be said of Raj Thackeray and the MNS. The party has struggled to cross double digits. The party has improved its performance from the last election, it is still nowhere near the 2008 when it won 28 seats in its debut polls.

The MNS may take some solace from retaining limited influence in the city, largely due to its alliance with Uddhav Thackeray. Questions would arise over whether the MNS's poor performance contributed to the alliance's defeat in the elections.

For Eknath Shinde, the polls appear to have delivered a clear message: for many Mumbaikars, his faction is not the original Shiv Sena. The nostalgia associated with the Thackeray name remains strong.

Despite inheriting the party name and symbol, the results can hardly be described as a victory. Shinde's faction is struggling to cross the 30-seat mark, indicating resistance among Marathi voters.

Shinde relied heavily on his position as deputy chief minister and his claim to represent the 'real' Shiv Sena. However, many traditional Sena voters in Mumbai chose to stay with Uddhav Thackeray's faction.

Ahead of the polls, some political observers argued that the Congress missed an opportunity by not aligning with Sena (UBT). Instead, the party tied up with Prakash Ambedkar's Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi -- a move that failed to yield results.

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Once a dominant force in Mumbai, the Congress has barely crossed double digits. From 31 seats in 2017, it is currently leading in just 12 wards. Hamstrung by a weak grassroots organisation, the party failed to project itself as a viable alternative.

Both the NCP factions -- Ajit Pawar's NCP and Sharad Pawar's NCP (SP) -- have struggled in the polls. While NCP (SP) failed to open its account, the Ajit Pawar's faction will have limited presence in the civic body. Both factions' decision to not go to polls with its alliance partners appears to have hurt them.