What exit polls predicted in 2020 Bihar elections and how different the actual results were
In 2020, several exit polls -- including Republic TV–Jan Ki Baat, India Today–Axis My India, and Today's Chanakya (CNN-News18) -- had projected a comfortable victory for the Mahagathbandhan.
New Delhi: With the first phase of voting for the Bihar assembly elections already over and the second phase scheduled for Tuesday, November 11, all eyes are now on the exit polls that various media organisations will release after polling ends.
Exit polls, known for their mixed record over the years, have been particularly patchy in recent elections. Still, projections will start rolling in about 30 minutes after voting closes -- around 6.30 pm.
Exit polls vs actual results: What happened in 2020
In the 2020 Bihar elections, almost every major survey had predicted a clear win for the Mahagathbandhan. But when the votes were counted, it was the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) that managed to retain power.
Once voting ends on Tuesday, agencies will release exit poll data estimating whether the NDA can hold on to power or if the Mahagathbandhan will make a comeback.
In 2020, several exit polls -- including Republic TV–Jan Ki Baat, India Today–Axis My India, and Today's Chanakya (CNN-News18) -- had projected a comfortable victory for the Mahagathbandhan.
Republic TV–Jan Ki Baat Exit Poll: Predicted 118–138 seats for the Mahagathbandhan, 91–117 for the NDA, and 5–8 for the LJP.
India Today–Axis My India Exit Poll: Projected 139–161 seats for the Mahagathbandhan and 69–91 for the NDA.
Today's Chanakya–CNN News18 Exit Poll: Estimated 180 seats for the Mahagathbandhan and only 55 for the NDA.
However, when results were declared on November 10, 2020, the actual outcome told a different story. The NDA won 125 seats, crossing the majority mark of 122, while the Mahagathbandhan secured 110.
Within the NDA, the BJP emerged as the leading party with 74 seats, followed by JD(U) with 43, and smaller allies HAM and VIP winning 4 seats each. In the Mahagathbandhan camp, the RJD led with 75 seats, followed by Congress (19), CPI-ML (12), CPI (2), and CPM (2).
The NDA's narrow yet decisive win allowed Nitish Kumar to return as chief minister, despite the JD(U)'s reduced tally.
What's different in 2025
The VIP, which was an NDA ally in 2020, has now joined the Mahagathbandhan, while the LJP (Ram Vilas) is contesting as part of the NDA. It contested independently in the last
Adding new layers to the contest, Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party — contesting all 243 seats — and Tej Pratap Yadav’s Jan Janta Party (JJP) are expected to influence the electoral arithmetic in several constituencies.
With voting concluding on November 11 and results due on November 14, all eyes will be on whether exit polls this time capture Bihar’s political pulse accurately — or once again misread the verdict, as they did five years ago.