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There is severe space weather expected in the days ahead. According to the forecast by the Centre of Excellence in Space Sciences India (CESSI) hosted by the Indian Institute of Science Education and Research (IISER) in Kolkata, "AR14299, AR14298, and AR12494 have already produced several strong flares, including an M8.1 event from AR14299 on 06 December at 20:39 UT. This eruption launched a halo coronal mass ejection (CME) that is confirmed to be Earth-directed. Our analysis shows a projected arrival on 09 December at approximately 22:25 UT, with an uncertainty of ±8 hours. The CME speed is estimated at ~535 km/s (range: 516–555 km/s)."
A high speed stream from a coronal hole can also become geoeffective next week. Modelling of a fast CME associated with an X1.1 solar flare that erupted on 8 December is awaited. According to the latest forecast by the Space Weather Prediction Centre (SWPC) operated by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, "The geomagnetic field is likely to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 08 Dec due to the influence of the periphery of a CME that left the Sun on 04 Dec. G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storm levels are likely on 09 Dec due to the anticipated influence of the CME that left the Sun on 06 Dec. G1 conditions on 10 Dec are likely due to waning CME effects."
According to the latest forecast by the Solar Influences Data Analysis Centre (SIDC) operated by the Royal Observatory of Belgium, "The solar wind conditions are expected to remain elevated over the next day under the waning influence of the ongoing high-speed stream with chances for minor enhancements Dec 07 related to any possible glancing blow influence from the modelled CMEs, which launched from the Sun on Dec 03 and Dec 04. Stronger enhancements are expected late on Dec 08 or early Dec 09 with an anticipated arrival of the halo CME from Dec 06."
