IDC raises 2025 smartphone forecast as iOS growth accelerates
IDC has raised its 2025 worldwide smartphone forecast to 1% growth, nearly double its earlier projection, citing stronger iOS adoption. The report highlights regional disparities, with growth in the U.S., Middle East, and Africa, but a decline in China.
The smartphone market in the world is becoming more resistant than anticipated in 2025. Having already revised its forecast several times in the earlier part of this year, IDC is quite optimistic about an even greater rebound. The research firm forecasts that the market will end 2025 with 1% growth after projecting the same to be 0.6% at the start of May. The enhanced optimism can be greatly attributed to faster iOS adoption, which will be widening by 3.9 percent in the year.
The shift is a turning point in the issue of tariffs, inflation and slow consumer spending. IDC has come to consider such economic pressures as the background noise instead of big obstacles. Rather, the market will remain stable in the coming years into 2026 through healthy replacement demand, which will provide some stability following months of uncertainty.
Regional outlook shows uneven growth
IDC forecasts the U.S. smartphone market to increase by 3.6 percent in 2025, with the Middle East and Africa increasing by an even higher figure of 6.5 percent. Asia Pacific, with the exception of China, will only record 0.8 percent growth. The Chinese market, which is the largest smartphone market globally, will experience a drop of 1 percent, highlighting the disparities that still exist in the region among makers.
GenAI phones to drive next wave
Generative AI is becoming a big drive in the industry. In the year 2025, the number of GenAI-enabled smartphones shipped will be over 370 million, according to the estimates of IDC, which will constitute about 30 percent of the total world market. That proportion may reach more than 70 percent by 2029 as AI becomes an even lower-end feature.
Foldable smartphones will also be adopted more strongly. In the year 2025, IDC predicts a 6 percent year-on-year increase, versus only 2 percent in 2020. The growth is projected to accelerate to 11% by the year 2027. Although a number of brands are increasing their foldable investment, the report does not mention Apple much, although there are speculations that a foldable iPhone will soon be introduced.