Explained: Why are protests in Iran causing unease in Pakistan

New Delhi: The widespread protests currently underway in Iran have caused alarm and anxiety the world over. With US rhetoric of aggression against Iran growing day by day, several international actors are fearful of the implications of the developments in Iran. Pakistan, which shares a border with Iran, is also taking note, particularly in context of related unrest in the Sistan-Baluchestan province. Islamabad fears there could be a spillover in its Balochistan, especially at a time when unverified reports have come out claiming the presence of American troops in Pakistan for an Iran operation.

Iran is currently witnessing some of the largest protest movements it has seen in years. The root of the protests lie in economic grievances of the public, be it soaring inflation or a collapsing currency. The high prices of basic goods have also risen exponentially in Iran, and protests that began in Tehran’s bazaars soon spread to major cities.

The protests against economic dissatisfaction soon turned into sustained anti-government unrest. This was then answered with brutal crackdowns by Iranian security forces. The Iranian government blames "terrorists” and foreign interference for the unrest, insisting that it will not bow to pressure, also imposing internet blackouts and communication restrictions to curb the spread of protest information.

Pakistan shares a long and porous border with Iran and any disruption in Iran has the potential to escalate uncertainties in Pakistan. This is especially true for the ethnically and politically sensitive Balochistan region in Pakistan which has historically been volatile, with Baloch separatist insurgencies on both sides of the frontier.

Thus any instability in Iran’s eastern provinces risks emboldening insurgent networks in Balochistan. Massive unrest and political uncertainty have the potential to enable increased militant movements in the region and complicate security operations for Islamabad. Pakistan fears that if Iranian forces are preoccupied with internal unrest, militant groups could exploit the situation to stage attacks or expand their footprint across the border.

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Such unrest can severely affect trade across the Iran-Pakistan border. Local economies in Balochistan rely on cross-border commerce and this could be at risk if political uncertainties in Iran further complicate. In regard to this, the Pakistani Foreign Office has issued advisories urging citizens to avoid travel to Iran and advising those already there to exercise caution amid protests and connectivity disruptions.

While Pakistan has traditionally maintained careful neutrality in Middle Eastern conflicts, tensions in Iran could place Islamabad in a delicate position. This would become even more complicated with the entry of the US in the equation, whose recent rhetoric is suggestive on this issue. The rivalry of Saudi Arabia and Iran, and how that plays out if unrest escalates in Iran, would be another balancing act that Pakistan might find difficult to manoeuvre.