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Kolkata: Though investing in crypto currency is frowned upon in India by the finance ministry and Reserve Bank of India authorities, many individuals invest in this asset and in growing numbers. Recently there has been a decline in the crypto market. Vikram Subburaj, CEO at Giottus explores the question, whether this dip offers an opportunity for investors to enter the crypto market which can provide a diversification strategy, especially when the equity markets are back near their peaks. He tries to answer the question why the decline in crypto prices and sums up the year 2025 for the asset. For details, please read on.
"South Asia is emerging as the fastest-growing region for 2025 and India frequently tops global indices and domestic reports also show a remarkable surge in crypto SIPs this year," Subburaj points out. Giottus is a fully compliant, FIU-registered Indian exchange serving over a million customers.
Q: The crypto market correcting to a half-year low while equities remain at record highs, is this the right time to enter and consider a diversification strategy?
A: This kind of dislocation is the time when diversification starts to make sense, provided investors stagger entries and manage risk. Bitcoin is trading around the high-$80K to low-$90K band after falling roughly 30% from its October all-time high above $126,000. The broader market has shed over $1 trillion in value. This has taken the total crypto capitalisation from above $4.2 trillion to near $3.2 trillion.
Equities, meanwhile, are hovering around record levels. So, investors are effectively buying crypto on sale versus stocks at a premium. At the same time, global crypto ownership and penetration have continued to rise in 2025. Multiple studies suggest that the asset class is approaching or crossing a 10% adoption threshold worldwide. Historically, such drawdowns inside a larger adoption trend have been attractive windows for disciplined accumulation. For Indian investors, using SIP-style staggered allocations to blue-chip assets such as BTC, ETH, and high-quality Layer-1s can turn volatility into a diversification tool rather than a source of anxiety.
Q: What are the key reasons driving crypto prices downward at the moment?
A: The current drawdown is less about a single “crypto problem” and more about how macro, positioning, and sentiment intersect. First, this correction follows Bitcoin's October all-time high above $126,000. So, some degree of profit-taking was inevitable. That unwind coincided with shifting expectations around US interest-rate cuts and a mixed reaction to the latest Fed move. These kept risk-on assets, like crypto, on edge even as equities pushed higher.
Second, options and futures data show traders “hunkering down” for an extended range-bound phase after a fourth-quarter slide that erased more than $1 trillion from digital-asset values. That has been reinforced by nearly $1 billion in leveraged positions being liquidated in a single session and several billion dollars of outflows from crypto exchange-traded products in November.
Third, there is a short-term confidence shock: markets are digesting both AI-related risk-off moves and lower-than-expected ETF inflows after the initial euphoria. Put together, these forces have turned what began as tactical profit-taking into a broader, but still cyclical, reset.
Q: How has 2025 shaped up for crypto in terms of overall performance, volume surge, and industry growth?
A: 2025 has been a paradoxical year. We have seen both a “great crypto crash” and some of the strongest structural growth signals to date. On the price side, Bitcoin set a new all-time high above $126,000 in October before sliding over 25-30% and, thereby, erasing more than $1 trillion from total market value. But beneath that volatility, market plumbing has strengthened. Combined spot and derivatives trading on centralised exchanges hit about $9.72 trillion in August, the highest monthly volume of 2025. This pointed to deep and active participation from both retail and institutions. Major benchmark indices like the CoinDesk 20 still sit in positive territory for the year despite the recent pullback. This shows broad-based gains across leading assets.
On the adoption side, research suggests crypto is on track to cross a 10% global penetration threshold. Many strategists treat this as a tipping point from niche to mainstream. For India specifically, multiple independent indices place the country at or near the top of global grassroots adoption in 2025.
Q: Based on current cues, what does the crypto market outlook for 2026 look like?
A: In the short term, options markets and ETF flow data suggest we may remain range-bound as the system continues to digest the 2025 crash and macroeconomic uncertainty. But the medium-term picture into 2026 is more constructive than prices alone indicate. Even after halving its famously bullish forecast, Standard Chartered still sees Bitcoin at around $100,000 by the end of 2025 and $150,000 by the end of 2026. JPMorgan, using a volatility-adjusted gold framework, has suggested upside toward $170,000 over the next 6-12 months, depending on ETF flows and index-inclusion decisions.
At the ecosystem level, 2025 has accelerated ETFs, real-world asset tokenisation, and institutional infrastructure. Several analyses argue that crypto is crossing the 10% global adoption threshold. This is an inflection that historically marks a shift from speculative cycles to more structural demand. For 2026, our base case is not a straight-line rally but a grind higher. Volatility will remain. However, as macro rates normalise, ETF channels mature, and Layer-1/L2 platforms scale, disciplined investors who accumulate during this reset are likely to be rewarded.
(Disclaimer: This article is only meant to provide information. TV9 does not recommend buying or selling shares or subscriptions of any IPO, Mutual Funds, precious metals, commodity, REITs, InvITs and any form of alternative investment instruments and crypto assets.)
