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New Delhi: In a recent startling turn of events, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has offered to drop Ukraine’s aim of joining the NATO military alliance. This comes after Zelensky's long meeting with US envoys in Berlin on Sunday to end the war with Russia. Apart from territorial concessions and aggravations, one of the biggest points of contention between Russia and Ukraine has been the latter’s insistence on joining NATO.
US President Donald Trump has been making regular attempts to bring about some semblance of peace between Russia and Ukraine. His attempts in this regard have been many and in recent times have been focussed on a peace plan that is currently being discussed with Ukraine’s Zelensky.
The proposed framework voiced by Trump broadly focuses on halting fighting along current front lines and deferring or limiting Ukraine’s NATO ambitions in exchange for Western security guarantees. The major point is opening talks on contested territories without immediate Ukrainian military recovery of all occupied areas. US envoys have in this regard held multiple rounds of talks with Kyiv.
Despite multiple US attempts, Zelensky has resisted any deal that formally cedes Ukrainian territory. Negotiations thus remain active but unresolved. This new admission by Zelensky of there being chances of Ukraine agreeing to halt its bid to get into NATO might become a big factor for the continuation and resolution of the peace talks.
There seems to be optimism on this point now. As US special envoy Steve Witkoff said “a lot of progress was made” as he and the US president’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, met Zelensky in the latest peace talks. Dmytro Lytvyn, an adviser to the Ukrainian president, also said that Zelensky would comment further when the talks conclude but officials are reportedly considering the draft documents.
This is in regard to Zelensky offering to drop Ukraine’s bid of joining NATO in exchange for western security guarantees. This step is of extreme significance, a major shift in Ukraine’s approach which for a long time now has sought NATO membership to safeguard its interests from Russia.
Zelenskyy described the concession on Nato as a compromise. “From the very beginning, Ukraine’s desire was to join Nato: these are real security guarantees. Some partners from the US and Europe did not support this direction,” he said. Though the security guarantees are also positive for Zelensky, who added that security guarantees from the US, Europe and other countries such as Canada and Japan could “prevent another Russian invasion”.
The Ukrainian bid to join NATO has been one of the biggest points of contention between the two countries. Vladimir Putin has repeatedly demanded that Ukraine officially renounce its NATO ambitions. This has been a long-standing and a principal demand from Russia. Combined with this has been Moscow’s demand that Ukraine, effectively meaning that no NATO troops be stationed in the country.
Ukraine’s NATO amalgamation has for a long time been seen by Russia as the eastward expansion of the military organisation. Putin sees it as a direct threat to Russia's national security as it would place a hostile military bloc on its border.
Ukraine’s accession in this regard is extremely important and also maintains Russia’s goal of maintaining a strategic buffer zone between itself and NATO countries, something that Putin views as beneficiary to the country's long-term security goals. If undertaken, the move would also see Ukraine remain in Russia’s sphere of influence more directly, even if the war reaches a stalemate in the near future.
While it is highly improbable that Ukraine formally agreeing to not join NATO would not be a halt in the Russia-Ukraine war, it would still be a major de-escalation. Addressing one of Russia’s long-standing stated grievances with Ukraine, it has the possibility of bringing the two counties to the peace talk table in a more determined way, with Ukraine’s intent of peace through compromise becoming clearer to the Kremlin. Ukraine though will likely prefer legally bounded security guarantees from the West if it goes forward with disavowing its NATO intentions.
