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India confident on US trade deal amidst tariff talks; explaining the tariffs & trade dynamics

India and the US are close to finalizing the first phase of a trade agreement, aiming to reduce high US tariffs on Indian exports. Despite 50% US duties on most Indian goods, India's exports to the US remain positive, driven by tariff-free electronics. India anticipates total exports to exceed $850 billion this fiscal year, showing strong growth and commitment to securing the deal.

India-US Trade Deal Nears: Tariffs on Indian Exports to Reduce Soon
India-US Trade Deal Nears: Tariffs on Indian Exports to Reduce Soon Credit:India US Jamie McCarthy Getty Images
| Updated on: Jan 15, 2026 | 06:00 PM
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New Delhi: Amidst the uncertainty regarding the trade deal between India and the US, Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agarwal on Thursday said that the first part of the India-US trade agreement, which could reduce mutual tariffs on Indian exports is expected to be finalised soon. However, he said that no timeline can be specified right now.

A virtual meeting was held between India's Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal and the US Trade Representative (USTR) and the negotiating teams on both sides are constantly negotiating to reach a consensus.

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US tariffs on Indian goods

The US has imposed a tariff of 50 percent on most Indian goods, which is the highest in the world. He said that India expects exports to the US to remain positive, given that electronics shipments, which are now tariff-free, have been a main driver till now, even though high duties are affecting other sectors.

Agarwal said that both countries are engaged in negotiations and are committed to confirming the deal. He rejected speculations that the negotiations might fail. According to government data, India's exports to the US increased by 9.8 percent on an annual basis during April-December of financial year 2026.

Agarwal expressed confidence that India's total exports will cross 850 billion dollars in the current financial year. He said that merchandise exports increased by 1.86 percent year-on-year to $38.51 billion in December 2025, compared to $37.8 billion in December 2024. He said there has been a positive movement in our export growth. We have maintained a positive territory.

In the first 9 months of the current financial year, total exports were 634.26 billion dollars, which was 607.93 billion dollars in the same period last year. Imports rose to $63.55 billion in December 2025 from $58.43 billion a year earlier, resulting in a trade deficit of $25 billion that month. According to official data, during April-December, merchandise exports increased by 2.44% to $330.29 billion.

US threatens tariffs on Iran's trade partners

On possible tariff issues related to Iran, Agarwal said that India's trade with that country is limited. We are keeping an eye on this. We are waiting for details and as soon as we get details, we will look into it, he said.

US President Donald Trump said on Monday that the United States will impose new tariffs on countries that trade with Iran and has threatened to impose a duty of 25 percent on all trade with the United States.

The White House has not released any details on how the tariffs will be implemented or implemented. Trump did not define what it means to do business with Iran, raising questions about whether this measure would apply to goods, services or financial transactions and which countries could be targeted.

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