Bihar Assembly Elections 2025: What exit polls predicted and which was the closest?

New Delhi: Most exit polls had predicted an NDA victory in Bihar assembly elections, but none foresaw the landslide. While counting is still on, the NDA is leading on 202 seats.

While BJP is ahead on 90 seats and JD-U on 82, another key ally of NDA is LJP, which is leading on 21 seats. Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM) and Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM) are leading on 5 and 4 seats, respectively. So, in all, NDA is leading on 202 seats. This lead is far more what the exit polls had predicted.

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Chanakya predicted that the BJP and its allies would bag around 160 seats, with a margin of error of ±12 seats, while the RJD-led alliance would win about 77 seats, also with a ±12 seat margin.

Axis My India projected an NDA victory with 121–141 seats, while estimating that the Mahagathbandhan would secure between 98 and 118 seats. According to the forecast, the NDA was expected to secure 43% of the vote share, the Mahagathbandhan 41%, and Jan Suraaj around 4%.

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Matrize Exit Poll forecast the NDA likely getting between 147-167 seats. The People’s Insight projected 133–148 seats for the NDA, 87–102 for the Mahagathbandhan, and 0–2 seats for Jan Suraaj. The People's Pulse predicted 133-159 seats for the NDA, 75-101 to the Mahagathbandhan, and 0-5 to Kishor's party. JVC projected 135–150 seats for the NDA and 88–103 for the Mahagathbandhan, while Polstrat estimated 133–148 seats for the NDA and 87–102 for the Mahagathbandhan. Pollster P-Marq forecast an NDA win with 142–162 seats, while projecting 80–98 seats for the Mahagathbandhan and 1–4 seats for Jan Suraaj.

The highest upper limit forecast by any exit poll was Chanakya’s 172. But even that is 30 seats short of the current NDA lead of 202. The next closest was Matrize (167). Its prediction was is 35 seats short. Not a single exit poll came anywhere near the NDA’s present tally of 202.

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