Yearender 2025: Which came on top gold, silver or stock market returns?

Kolkata: December is time to look back. The year 2025 will be known for a continuation of the fantastic bull run witnessed by the precious metals gold and silver. While the appreciation of gold and silver has taken most investors by surprise, the stock market too has shown some positive movement in the later part of the year after being somber for most parts, thanks too the 50% tariff that US president Donald Trump imposed on Indian goods imports. These are the highest rate of tariffs on any country in the world that proved to e a drag on the stock markets that were otherwise enjoying the tailwinds of ample policy support, rising consumption thanks to the GST reforms and policy rate cuts of 125 basis points and huge inflow from the domestic institutional investors and retail investors.

Therefore, the year has been quite different for different set of investments. The precious metals set the price charts on fire. Let's have a look at the price movement in recent times. MCX data shows that between Nov 5 and Dec 5, the price of the yellow metal jumped about 7.5% -- from Rs 1,19,289/10 gm to Rs 1,28,221/10 gm.

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Moreover, data indicate that if one compares the price of gold over the past one year, the price of gold has risen by about 70%.

The price of gold has jumped nearly 7.5% in the last one month, going from Rs 1,19,289/10g on November 5, 2025, to Rs 1,28,221 on December 5, 2025, according to MCX. Similarly, if we examine the absolute returns figure over 1, 2 and 3 years, the gold prices have increased by 70%. Charts show that on Dec 2 last year the price of 10 gms of gold was Rs 75,950 while the price of the same amount of gold jumped to Rs 1,27,723.

If we look back at the price appreciation of gold the jump are far higher -- by 105% in two years and by 139% over three years. In short it means that if one invested Rs 1 lakh in gold three years in early December 2022, it would have jumped to Rs 2.39 lakh in early December this year.

Recently published data on gold prices indicate absolute returns of more than 400% in the past 10 years. For example, the price of 10 gms of gold was Rs 25,25 on December 1, 2015. Now consider the price level of Dec 2, 2015, which was Rs 1,27,723. This generated a return of 406.13%. The price of the yellow metal peaked just before Dhanteras and then consolidated a bit in the following weeks.

From the beginning of 2025, veteran investment experts such as Nilesh Shah, managing director of Kotak AMC, kept on telling investors to allocate a part of their money to gold. He said one should consider allocating 10-15% of the portfolio in gold -- preferably gold-linked instruments such as gold ETFs and gold ETF FoFs. Analysts were unanimous in their views that investors should buy on dips since the long-term outlook of gold is bullish. As the advice spread, more and more multi-asset funds also began attracting more and more investment. Multi-asset funds typically invest in precious metals such as gold and silver, which would lend stability to the returns even in conditions of the stock prices wobbling.

Analysts pointed out that among the factors that pushed the price of gold to dizzy heights this year were continuous central bank purchases, dipping interest rates from the US Fed, changes in real yields, US dollar gaining strength as well as geopolitical tensions. Traditionally, whenever there is tension in the air, the price of gold has risen in history.

Though in public imagination and discourse, silver almost always used to play the second fiddle to gold, in terms of returns silver is outshining gold this year. There are cold data to suggest so. Analysts have pointed out that silver have often delivered returns that were higher than 100% in 2025.

Consider the price points of silver. On Dec 2, 2024, a kg of silver was priced at Rs 88,409 while on Dec 2 2025, the price jumped to Rs 1,74,987 or a rise of almost 98%. Now compare it with the price level of Rs 33,729 on Dec 1, 2015. This time the price appreciation works out by 418%. In both one-year and 10-year time periods, silver outshine gold.

“Beyond safe haven buying, silver’s outlook is increasingly defined by its industrial story. Demand is accelerating, while supply remains structurally constrained, making it difficult to close the widening supply-demand gap. Given these factors, rising industrial consumption, persistent deficits and green-energy-driven structural demand, silver’s long-term growth potential may outpace gold’s, even though gold remains the dominant safe haven metal,” Navneet Damani, head of research, commodities & currencies, Motilal Oswal Financial Services, was quoted in the media as saying. Like gold, silver too is a safe-haven asset but thanks to a few factors, its long-term potential seems brighter than that of gold.

Consider the demand pull on the white metal. One, it is increasingly being used in industries of the future such as electric vehicles and solar power sectors and solar panels. The proliferation of AI (artificial intelligence) and high-performance electronics also need silver. Add to this demand, a potential supply deficit -- both in terms of mining and recycling. Also investors have noticed the low gold-silver ratio and it has generated a huge demand pull from investors. Also the price surge in gold itself has created a demand for silver especially in the silver sector.

The expectations of policy rate cuts by the US Fed and a weaker dollar have also led to a surge in silver prices in the global markets. While people have bought more bars and coins of silver in 2025, a lot of investors have flocked to silver ETFs and silver ETF FoFs.

The stock market indices have performed poorly in comparison to both the precious metals. For example, Sensex was at 78,750 points and it stood at 84,771.37 -- a gain of 7.6%. The performance of the equity markets factored in a few headwinds. These were FPI outflows, uncertainty around US tariffs, slowing growth in major economies, valuations in the Indian equity market that made investors uncomfortable.

However, the coming year could be a bullish one for the Indian equities. MNC brokerage Morgan Stanley has forecast that Sensex 30 could jump to 1,07,000 by December 2026 in its bull case, and 95,000 in its base case. This -- implying a huge 26% upside from the current level of 84,771. Morgan Stanley thinks that the underperformance in 2025 could be over in 2026 when a broad recovery fanned by macro tailwinds -- policy support, indirect tax reform, higher consumption, better Q2FY earnings, more realistic valuations, strong domestic institutional and retail investment flows could pump up the markets.