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Vote counting for the 2025 Bihar Assembly elections will take place on Friday. Although most exit polls indicate a clear advantage for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), Bihar’s complex political map, diverse regional trends and high voter turnout leave room for unexpected twists as results unfold.
Total seats: 243
Majority mark: 122
Phase 1 turnout (6 Nov): 65.08%
Phase 2 turnout (11 Nov): 68.76%
Major national pollsters released their exit poll projections after the final phase of voting. While seat estimates vary, most agencies point to the NDA crossing the majority mark. The RJD-led Mahagathbandhan, though competitive across several regions, is projected to fall short of forming the government on its own. Analysts, however, warn that exit polls—based on sample responses, often miss late shifts in voter mood and turnout variations across districts.
Bihar’s political landscape is sharply segmented. Western Bihar has strong BJP pockets, central plains remain RJD-influenced, and the north-east and Bhojpuri belt witness intense caste-driven and multi-party contests. These variations can distort state-level aggregates. Even small shifts matter. With many constituencies witnessing close three-way fights, vote share does not always translate evenly into seat wins. Concentrated support in certain areas may skew outcomes.
The Aam Aadmi Party, contesting all 243 seats, along with smaller outfits and independents, could split votes in tight races. This may decisively influence margins in constituencies where the main alliances are neck-and-neck. Higher turnout does not benefit all parties uniformly. The demographic composition of voters, who turned out and where, will shape final seat conversions and could upend exit poll estimates.
The NDA entered the election with a broad coalition, sharing seats among the BJP, JD(U) and other allies. If their vote transfer remains smooth and disciplined, the alliance stands a strong chance of reaching the 122-seat majority mark.
The Mahagathbandhan, led by the RJD, is banking on anti-incumbency sentiments across several districts. Its performance will depend on converting its widespread vote share into actual seats while countering the NDA’s consolidated support base.
Exit polls have created a narrative of an NDA advantage, but Bihar’s layered politics and constituency-level dynamics ensure that the final results could spring surprises. All eyes will be on tomorrow’s counting to see whether the trends hold—or whether Bihar delivers an unexpected mandate.
